• Willow Oak Advisory

China to dethrone US as world’s biggest economy sooner than we'd predicted, expert group says

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) expects that China’s economy will outshine that of the US by 2028, half a decade sooner than it had previously forecast.

(RT) According to a report from the UK-based consultancy group, the country’s quick rebound from the Covid-19 pandemic will generate a two-percent growth in 2020, while the US is expected to contract by five percent. China's economy, when measured in dollars, is set to narrow the gap with its biggest rival.

At the same time, the CEBR report suggests that global gross domestic product (GDP) would drop 4.4 percent, marking the biggest year-on-year decline since the second world war.

“The big news in this forecast is the speed of growth of the Chinese economy. We expect it to become an upper-income economy during the current five-year plan period (2020-25). And we expect it to overtake the US a full five years earlier than we did a year ago,” the CEBR’s deputy chairman Douglas McWilliams said.

China’s share of global GDP has reportedly expanded from 3.6 percent in 2000 to 17.8 percent in 2019 and will continue to grow. The country is expected to pass the $12,536 mark in per-capita income, which will help it to join the club of high-income nations by 2023. However, living standards in China will reportedly remain lower than in western countries. In the US, the average per-capita income stands at $63,000.

“Other Asian economies are also shooting up the league table. One lesson for western policymakers, who have performed relatively badly during the pandemic, is that they need to pay much more attention to what is happening in Asia, rather than simply looking at each other,” McWilliams said.

63/66 Hatton Garden

Fifth Floor, Suite 23



United Kingdom

+44 (0) 203 633 6961

  • LinkedIn - White Circle
  • Twitter - White Circle
  • Facebook - White Circle

​This website should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation to conduct investment business. Past performance of investments is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the income from investments may fluctuate and is not guaranteed. Clients may not recover the amount invested. The investments mentioned on this website are not suitable for all types of investors. Investment advice should always be sought from a qualified investment adviser before any investment is made.

Trading and investing can be a challenging and potentially profitable opportunity for investors. However, before deciding to participate in the market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.

There is considerable exposure to risk in any investment transaction. Any transaction involving securities involves risks including, but not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions that may substantially affect the price or liquidity of a currency. Investments in speculation may also be susceptible to sharp rises and falls as the relevant market values fluctuate. The leveraged possibility of trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds. This may work against you as well as for you. Not only may investors get back less than they invested, but in the case of higher risk strategies, investors may lose the entirety of their investment. It is for this reason that when speculating in markets it is advisable to use only risk capital.

© Copyright 2021 Willow Oak Advisory. All Rights Reserved